To evaluate trends in diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) assignment in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) Clinic Outcomes Reporting System database and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting poor ovarian response (POR) as defined in European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology’s Bologna criteria (2011).
Retrospective cohort study.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S):
DOR assignment was the primary exposure. POR, defined as cycle cancellation for poor response or less than 4 oocytes retrieved after conventional gonadotropin stimulation (>149 IU FSH daily), was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were live birth and number of oocytes retrieved. DOR prevalence, power of DOR and FSH (</≥12 mIU/mL) to predict POR, and live birth in POR cycles were also calculated.
DOR prevalence increased from 19% to 26% from 2004 to 2011. Among cycles clinically assigned as DOR, incidence of POR decreased from 32% to 30%, and live birth improved from 15% to 17%. Comparing basal FSH ≥12 versus clinical assignment of DOR, basal FSH had a higher specificity (92.2% vs. 81.6%) and positive predictive value (38.3% vs. 30.9%) for predicting POR. Live birth among POR cycles was 4%.
DOR diagnosis is increasing, and accuracy remains poor, despite the availability of additional diagnostic parameters such as antral follicle count and antimüllerian hormone. POR entailed poor outcomes, but the majority of patients clinically assigned as DOR did not experience POR. Development and use of more accurate predictors of POR are needed to minimize patient distress resulting from overdiagnosis.